Sunday Weather Update

First, a few words about March. It was a warm month and a wet one. In both it ranked in the top ten (9th wettest March at DFW, 3rd highest for average temperature). Last month DFW recorded 5.74? of rain, or about 82 TIMES MORE RAIN THAN LAST MARCH (.07?). Such is the nature of the weather on the northern edge of the Texas coastal plain; there is a great?variability?in rainfall from year-to-year and month-to-month.

March also ended with 12 days in a row of above-normal temperatures. Well welcome to the new month, same as the old month. There is rain on the horizon and above normal temperatures continue their streak. Highs today will top out over 90 degrees in our west in Parker and Hood Counties (towards Abilene highs will get into the upper 90?s). There could be some 90?s recorded in western Tarrant county as well. Last year we didn?t hit 90 degrees for the first time until mid-April.

The forecast high for DFW is 89. Last year on April 1st we hit 89. We all remember how last year turned out temperature-wise (4th hottest year on record). Despite the warm trend of late (and the mild winter with only 14 freezes) there is a reason to hold out hope yet for the upcoming summer. The generous rains of winter (6th wettest ever recorded) and March have increased soil moisture and banished the worst one-year drought of record that was 2011.

This bodes well in keeping temperatures in line; wet soil gives up water vapor under a hot sun. This makes clouds and pop-up storms. This limits daily warming and ?puts water back into the ground. The cycle can go on for a while, helping keep the extremely hot temperatures at bay. Last year we had a dry Spring and Summer. We also had a record number of 100 degree days.

Today expect a mostly sunny afternoon with highs in the upper 80?s. Winds will start to really pick up by afternoon, coming out of the south at 15-25mph.

On Monday there is a slight chance for some storms along the dryline on our western edge, from Eastland to Young counties. The better chance of storms for central parts of north Texas including the metroplex occur Monday night and Tuesday. An upper level low will start to trigger a decent rain event for us and stay around all the way until Wednesday morning. Then a cold front comes through and cooler weather arrives. Before then there is a chance for some severe weather on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Cooler weather on Wednesday is a relative term. ?As in not in the upper 80?s but still be in the mid-to-upper 70?s, above normal temperatures for this time of year. So is the story of early April, warm and (hopefully) wet. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss, we won?t be fooled again.

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